Science Says: Jack Frost nipping at your nose ever later This Tuesday, Oct. 24, 2017 photo provided by Margaret Primack shows her husband, Richard, in their home garden in Boston, still growing and productive. (Margaret Primack via AP/David McKeown/Republican-Herald via AP)
Science Says: Jack Frost nipping at your nose ever later
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Across the United States, the year's first freeze has been arriving further and further into the calendar. That's according to more than a century of measurements from weather stations nationwide.

Scientists say it is yet another sign of the changing climate. This has has good and bad consequences for the nation. There could be more fruits and vegetables, but there also could be more allergies and pests.

"I'm happy about it,” said Karen Duncan of Streator, Illinois. Her flowers are in bloom because she's had no frost this year yet. She had none last year at this time either. On the other hand, she said just last week it was too hot and buggy to go out. For her, that means in late October, near Chicago.

The trend of ever later first freezes appears to have started around 1980. That's according to an analysis by The Associated Press of data from 700 weather stations across the U.S. going back to 1895. It was compiled by Ken Kunkel, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information.

Kunkel compared the first freeze from each of the 700 stations to the station's average for the 20th Century. Some parts of the country experience earlier or later freezes every year, but on average freezes are coming later.

The average first freeze over the last 10 years, from 2007 to 2016, is a week later than the average from 1971 to 1980, before the trend became noticeable, Kunkel said.

This year, about 40 percent of the Lower 48 states have had a freeze as of Oct. 23. That is compared to 65 percent in a normal year, according to Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private service Weather Underground.

Duncan's flowers should be dead by now. According to data from the weather station near her in Ottawa, Illinois, the average first freeze for the 20th century was Oct. 15. The normal from 1981 to 2010 based on NOAA computer simulations was Oct. 19. Since 2010, the average first freeze is on Oct. 26. Last year, the first freeze in Ottawa came on Nov. 12.

Last year was "way off the charts" nationwide, Kunkel said. The average first freeze was two weeks later than the 20th century average, and the last frost of spring was nine days earlier than normal.

Overall the United States freeze season of 2016 was more than a month shorter than the freeze season of 1916. It was most extreme in the Pacific Northwest. Oregon's freeze season was 61 days - two months - shorter than normal.

Global warming has helped push the first frosts later, Kunkel and other scientists said. Also at play, though, are natural short-term changes in air circulation patterns - but they too may be influenced by man-made climate change, they said.

This shrinking freeze season is what climate scientists have long predicted, said University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Jason Furtado.

A shorter freeze season means a longer growing season and less money spent on heat. But it also hurts some plants that require a certain amount of chill, such as Georgia peaches, said Theresa Crimmins, a University of Arizona ecologist. Crimmins is assistant director of the National Phenology Network. Phenology is the study of the seasons and how plants and animals adapt to timing changes.

Pests that attack trees and spread disease aren't being killed off as early as they normally would be, Crimmins said.

In New England, many trees aren't changing colors as vibrantly as they normally do or used to because some take cues for when to turn from temperature, said Boston University biology professor Richard Primack.

Clusters of late-emerging monarch butterflies are being found far further north than normal for this time of year, and are unlikely to survive their migration to Mexico.

Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said natural variability, especially an El Nino, made last year exceptional for an early freeze, but "it represents the kind of conditions that will be more routine in a decade or two" because of man-made climate change.

"The long-term consequences are really negative," said Primack, because shorter winters and hotter temperatures are also expected to lead to rising seas that cause worse flooding during heavy storms.

In suburban Boston, Primack and his wife are still eating lettuce, tomatoes and green beans from their garden. And they are getting fresh figs off their backyard tree almost daily.

"These fig trees should be asleep," Primack said.

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CRITICAL THINKING QUESTION
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COMMENTS (50)
  • NatalieH-del
    11/03/2017 - 04:42 p.m.

    The weather is warmer than it should be. Scientists theorize that this is a sign of climate change. There are both pros and cons to this. On the good side, we'll have much more flowers and plants. On the other hand, we will have worse weather, more allergies, pests, and animals living in cold areas have to adapt to warmer weather.

  • OlivierJ-del
    11/03/2017 - 10:57 p.m.

    The world's climate is changing. I feel like there is a possible artificial way to stop this. If the world stopped getting warmer the air would be cleaner. And the temperature in November won't be in the 70s.

  • SophiaD-del1
    11/04/2017 - 02:49 p.m.

    yes, people do enjoy the hotter weather, but what does that do to the climate. Because of the ignorance portrayed of climate change, global warming is affecting the regular weather patterns, wildlife, and more. We need to think critically about what we can do to make a difference in the climate for the better. In fact, because of the longer heated oceans, more hurricanes and natural disasters yearly. We must change the way we see our errors in human kind's ways to create a meteorological balance. Therefore, cutting down the amount of carbon dioxide in the air that rips the ozone layer and creates more heat.

  • JadeR-del
    11/04/2017 - 06:15 p.m.

    Although this might create a longer growing season "it also hurts some plants that need a certain amount of chill, such as Georgia peaches."
    This might also be a problem because it might be man-created and not natural which is never a good thing in my opinion.

  • AkshayB-del
    11/04/2017 - 06:34 p.m.

    Overall this article was about the frost season which did not come yet because of global warming. Global warming has helped push the first frosts later. A shorter freeze season means a longer growing season and less money spent on heat. But it also hurts some plants that require a certain amount of chill.

  • ReesePratt-del
    11/05/2017 - 09:08 a.m.

    The article is how it will get cold later

  • EsmeraldaV-del
    11/05/2017 - 01:05 p.m.

    The cold winter hasn't come yet and no ones really paying much attention to it. Usually, around this time, we see a bit of snow, or cold weather. None of that has occurred. Its only been sun, clouds, and rain. Its as if we're in August instead of November.

  • ChloeR-del
    11/05/2017 - 01:26 p.m.

    Climate change causes a lot of problems particularly shorter winters. One problem is that butterflies won't be able to travel to Mexico because it would be too late. Another problem is that when it is hotter more storms would come and their would be more floods because of rising sea levels. Pests aren't being killed early enough as well.It hurts a lot of the plants, they need a certain amount of chill. Trees in New England aren't changing as fast as before.

  • RushB-del
    11/05/2017 - 03:36 p.m.

    With later freezing stages we could have more diseases, crops that require a little cold weather would die, and in future we have the potential have bigger floods

  • JuliaA -del
    11/05/2017 - 04:26 p.m.

    The main idea is how the weather is warmer than it should actually be in most parts of the world. For example, people in Boston are still eating fruits from their garden in the middle of November. Scientists think that this is yet another sign of climate change.

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