State-sized ice field could shrink if global warming continues
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A Rhode Island-size ice field in the mountains behind Alaska's capital could disappear by 2200. That is if climate-warming trends continue. The prediction is according to a University of Alaska Fairbanks study.
The study was published by the Journal of Glaciology. The study predicts 60 percent of the ice in the Juneau Ice Field could be gone by 2099.
The Juneau Ice Field is the source for a major Alaska tourist attraction. It is the Mendenhall Glacier. It was visited last year by 450,000 people at a U.S. Forest Service center. By 2099, the study authors said, the glacier's ice will be harder to find.
"By the end of this century, people will most likely not be able to see the Mendenhall Glacier anymore from the visitors' center," said Regine Hock, a UAF glaciologist. Hock is one of the authors of the study.
The Juneau Ice Field is one of the largest ice fields in the Western Hemisphere. It covers 1,500 square miles. The ice field is in the steep Coast Mountains. The range lines Alaska's Panhandle and much of British Columbia.
The Mendenhall Glacier is a 13-mile river of ice. It ends about 10 miles north of downtown Juneau.
The paper's lead author is Florian Ziemen of Hamburg, Germany. He worked on the study during a year of post-doctoral work at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
Modeling the melt of the ice field was challenging. That is because of the lack of weather stations in the remote mountains. Lacking weather data, models make computations based on physical characteristics. Those include sunlight, clouds and their movement and precipitation, Ziemen said.
"It just grabs the physical system of the climate," he said.
The numbers are translated into grid points every 20 kilometers. Ziemen had to adjust the numbers to account for Juneau's topography.
"The topography in the Juneau area is very steep," he said. "Just having one data point every 20 kilometers doesn't really resolve the mountain flanks. And how the precipitation falls."
The researchers applied corrected climate data to a forecasting model. They combined it with a glacier model. The model was developed by UAF researchers and has been used to make predictions for the Greenland Ice Sheet.
If warming trends continue, more than 60 percent of the ice will be lost by 2099. That is the prediction of the paper. All climate models predicted increased warming of the planet, Hock said.
"Even the lowest emission scenarios that are realistic predict a warming, essentially, all over the world," she said. "It's only the question, how aggressive?"
Ziemen picked a middle-of-the-road forecast, Hock said.
The high altitude of the Juneau Ice Field would make it less vulnerable to melting. If current climate continued, the ice field would shrink by 14 percent, Hock said.
CRITICAL THINKING QUESTION
Why was a “middle-of-the-road” forecast chosen?
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