Americans love an underdog
It's the time of year for March Madness. And boy, do fans love the underdog. The science shows it. We can't resist pulling for the underdog teams. Especially when college basketball's national tournament rolls around.
About a dozen studies over the past 25 years have proved this fact. In one way or another, sports fans are inexorably drawn to the team with the odds stacked against it.
"It's the prominent narrative in sports," said Nadav Goldschmied of University of San Diego. He collaborated on one of the studies.
This runs counter to almost everything else we're wired to think. Scientific studies show people want to be associated with success. Our self-esteem grows when we're part of the "in" crowd. Walk one well-dressed job candidate through the door, then follow him up with a schlub. The studies show the majority of us favor the person who appears more attractive. That is almost regardless of their credentials.
But take that same dynamic into a sporting contest. For instance, the NCAA basketball tournament. Put a No. 14 seed against a No. 3. Our perceptions change.
One of Goldschmied's studies had people watch a basketball game. It was between two relatively unknown European teams. Before the game, they were asked to read different write-ups about the rivalry. One group was led to believe Team A had won the last 15 meetings. The other was led to believe Team B had won them all. Who they rooted for tilted based on who they considered the underdog.
In both cases, the team perceived as the underdog was viewed as the team giving more effort with less ability.
"That's just the story we tell ourselves," Goldschmied said. "We don't have to look too deep to figure it out."
But it's not always true.
Another study was conducted by an Ohio State professor. It showed that groups that felt they had more to lose actually tried harder. That basically tears apart the whole theory that the Lafayettes, Stephen A. Austins and Hamptons of the world put more on the line in this year's tournament than Kentucky, Kansas and Wisconsin.
In this study, college students were asked to perform a simple task. They were told a group of students from another specific college was doing the same work.
In the studies where one of the competing schools was listed appreciably higher in the U.S. News and World Report college rankings, the students from that school completed about 30 percent more of the task. In short, they worked harder than when they were competing against a college ranked better or equal to theirs.
Conclusion: "The motivation gains were there when students felt their group's superior status was threatened," said the study's co-author, Robert Lount. He's a professor at Ohio State's Fisher College of Business.
"We came at it from a completely different angle. Which was, we know we like to avoid losing more than we appreciate the joy of winning," Lount said. "If you think of your own team as favored, the team may work especially hard to make sure it comes out on top."
For all our love of underdogs, there are a few exceptions.
If a person has a specific rooting interest in a team, the tendency is to favor that team. Say it is the college they graduated from. In that case, it doesn't matter if the team isn't the underdog.
It helps explain another study. It found when big-conference teams are seeded better in games against mid-majors in the tournament, the point spread for the big-conference teams is inflated. It's usually by an average of about two points a game. The point spread is a figure determined before a game. It will say one team should win by a certain number of points. Of course, what really counts is the actual score of the game.
"You look at the power conferences. And you see their following is much stronger than those of the smaller schools," said the study's co-author, Jim Lackritz. He is a statistics expert at San Diego State. "People put their money where their hearts are and that drives the line up." Power conferences are the most familiar nationally. They include the ACC, Big Ten and SEC.
All of which could serve as good advice for people picking against point spreads.
The majority of us, though, will fill out brackets with no point spreads involved. Our picks are more based on feel and feeling. Many will pay scant attention to the fact that double-digit seeds have won a mere 41 of 172 games during the opening week less than 24 percent over the past five years. These numbers do not include 2015.
Seems like more, doesn't it?
Well, we're wired to remember it that way.
Quick quiz: Who won the fight at the end of the first "Rocky" movie?
Answer: Apollo Creed.
But in a study Goldschmied is currently conducting, he said a majority of those asked answered "Rocky."
"We will bend our memory," Goldschmied said. "We have forced our memory to change just to fit the underdog story. It's because of the underdog mode in all of us.
Critical thinking challenge: Why do people like to root for the underdog?